On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, a decision that split the country by 52% to 48% and was driven by promises of “taking back control” over laws, borders, and the economy. The ultimate promise was a return to sovereignty and a chance to redirect the UK’s future away from what some saw as a burden. Restored sovereignty, better trade deals, stronger borders and economic revival were therefore at the forefront of the project.
Today, as we have reached the ninth anniversary of that vote, the economic and social landscape conveys a more complex picture. While Brexit may have restored formal legal control to the UK government, the practical consequences continue to unfold, especially in the economy and labour market. As the Institute for Government notes, “smaller businesses are finding it harder to cope with the burdens of exporting to the EU”, sectors relying on EU labour face shortages, and the UK has become less attractive to foreign investors (Institute for Government, 2021). A gap is therefore present between Brexit’s political aspirations and its economic reality.
In this article, we will explore the impact of Brexit, on a theoretical and practical basis, examining how the promises made in 2016 compare to the realities of today.
Promises vs. Reality: What Did Brexit Actually Deliver?
Brexit campaigners promised new trade deals on Britain’s terms, a flexible labour market that would empower domestic workers and an economic resurgence.
Nine years later, many of those promises remain unfulfilled:
As AP News summarised, “people and businesses are still wrestling with the economic, social and cultural aftershocks”, and the situation has only deepened since. (AP News, 2021)
The UK Economy, 9 Years Later:
1. GDP Growth:
The UK’s GDP is estimated to be 2–3% lower than it would have been had it remained in the EU, with long-term productivity also taking a hit. Further, forecasts from institutions consistently show the UK underperforming other EU economies since 2016. (CEPR, 2023)
2. Trade and Investment:
Exports to the EU have declined significantly. Smaller businesses face particularly high barriers due to customs requirements and regulatory divergence. (Institute for Government, 2021). Foreign direct investment has slowed with many firms relocating operations to concurrent cities in Europe.
3. Labour Shortages:
Ending freedom of movement has created large employment gaps, particularly in industries such as hospitality, farming, and logistics. Businesses say hiring EU workers has become more difficult and expensive due to new visa requirements, and domestic recruitment has yet to close the gap (BBC, 2024).
4. Wage Pressures and Inflation:
Some wages have occurred in sectors facing severe labour shortages, but these have been undercut by inflation. Import costs and supply chain delays especially with EU goods have led to higher prices, hitting UK consumers harder than those in most EU countries (AP News, 2021)
5. Youth Employment and Opportunity:
Employers have reported ongoing difficulties attracting skilled young workers from the continent (BBC, 2024). Britain’s once-fluid labour mobility across Europe has effectively vanished.
EU Members That Stayed the Course
1. Ireland:
Ireland’s economy continues to outperform many of its EU peers. According to the European Commission, Ireland’s GDP is projected to grow by 3.7% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, supported by a strong labour market and exports, even as global trade uncertainty rises (OECD, 2025). KPMG similarly expects GDP growth of around 3.3% in 2025 (KPMG, 2025).
2. France:
France has gained ground in financial services and manufacturing, attracting parts of London’s economic base. Cities like Paris benefited from the regulatory predictability of the EU and avoided the bureaucratic friction now burdening UK firms (AP News, 2021).
France’s economy continues to grow modestly, with year‑ahead forecasts around 0.6%–0.9% for 2024–2025 (Banque de France, 2024). Its financial services sector has seen significant gains. Since 2021, Paris has attracted over 5,500 banking and finance jobs relocated from London, and France’s net financial services surplus has nearly doubled to €5 billion in 2023 (Le Monde, 2024).
Public Sentiment: Remorse and Realignment
Public attitudes have shifted since 2016. Polling now consistently shows a majority of Britons believe Brexit was a mistake. Yet political leaders remain cautious:
Though political discourse seems to have moved on, the economic consequences of Brexit continue to unfold, quietly and persistently (Institute for Government, 2021).
Facing the Future with Confidence at Savant Recruitment
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Conclusion: A Divided Decade Later
Nearly a decade after the Brexit referendum, the UK stands in a markedly different place economically, socially, and politically. While the rhetoric of regained sovereignty once resonated, the lived reality for businesses, workers, and young people has been far more complex and offers a different reality. Growth has lagged, investment has faltered, and the country’s workforce continues to grapple with uncertainty, labour gaps, and rising living costs.
Comparisons with EU counterparts like Ireland and France only sharpen the picture as these countries have maintained stronger trade ties, more stable labour markets, and clearer economic trajectories.
As the decade mark is near, the UK faces a fundamental question: should it double down on divergence, or rethink its relationship with the EU for the sake of long-term stability? This is an ongoing debate that needs to be had in order to rethink the UK’s future on an economic and social landscape.
Meanwhile, amidst these challenges, there is also movement, one of industries adapting, new roles emerging, and space for transformation.
That’s where Savant Recruitment comes in.
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